I listed the Senate races and re-ordered them based on current data. The September state by state SUSA Bush ratings give us an insight into how much Bush will help or hurt a candidate.
I also included other race by race poll data as well. I did not list the Lieberman race as a competitive race, however it would be if progressive candidate Lowell Wieker were to challenge Lieberman.
Schumer has done a great job recruiting candidates and I think Virginia is the only state where we do not have a viable announced candidate; with North Dakota and West Virginia now safe the party can concentrate its resurces on less races.
More below the fold:
All potentially competative races now
Incumbent Repug - 9 to defend:
(D)Casey vs. (R)Santorum (Pennsylvania)
SUSA Santorum 42% appr. 46% dis. (Bush 36% appr.)
Latest poll: Quin. - Casey 52% Santorum 34%
(D)Brown/Hackett vs. (R)Dewine/McEwen (Ohio)
SUSA Dewine 42% appr. 43% dis. (Bush 37% appr.)
Latest poll: Zogby - Hackett 44% Dewine 36%
(D)McCaskill vs. (R)Talent (Missouri)
SUSA Talent 48% appr. 39% dis. (Bush 40% appr.)
Latest poll: Zogby - Talent 48% McCaskill 47%
(D)Whitehouse/Brown vs. (R)Chefee/Laffey (RI)
SUSA Chefee 55% appr. 37% dis. (Bush 30% appr.)
Latest poll: Brown U - Cheffee 41% Whitehouse 36%
(D)Tester/Morrison vs. (R)Burns (Montana)
SUSA Burns 48% appr. 42% dis. (Bush 49% appr.)
Latest Poll: Rassmu. Burns 51% Tester 38%
(D)Pederson vs. (R)Kyl (Arizona)
SUSA Kyle 49% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 44% appr.)
Latest poll: Zogby - Kyl 51% Petterson 42%
(D)Carter vs. (R)Ensign (Nevada)
Ensign 53% appr. 31% dis. (Bush 40% appr.)
(D)Ford vs. (R)Corker/Bryant/Hilleary (Tenn.)
SUSA Frist 49% appr. 41% dis. (Bush 46% appr.)
Latest poll: Zogby - Bryant 51% Ford 40%
(D)*Webb vs. (R)Allen (Virginia)
SUSA Allen 52% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 40% appr.)
Incumbent Dem - 7 to defend:
(D)Wetterling/Klobucher/Ciresi vs.(R)Kennedy (Minn.)
SUSA Dayton 46% appr. 39% dis. (Bush 40% appr.)
Latest poll: Zogby - Klobucher 49% Kennedy 43%
(D)Cardin vs. (R)Steele (Maryland)
SUSA Sarbanes 50% appr. 30% dis. (Bush 37% appr.)
Latest poll: Rassmussen Cardin 45% Steele 40%
(D)Cantwell vs. (R)McGavick (Washington)
SUSA Cantwell 47% appr. 37% dis. (Bush 36% appr.)
Latest poll: Zogby - Cantwell 49% McGavick 39%
(D)Bill Nelson vs. (R)Harris (Florida)
SUSA Nelson 48% appr. 31% dis. (Bush 39% appr.)
Latest Poll: Stra. Vis. Nelson 48% Harris 36%
(D)Stabenow vs. (R)Butler/Zandstra (Michigan)
SUSA Stabenow 46% appr. 38% dis. (Bush 38% appr.)
Latest poll: Stra. Vis.-Stabenow 48% Butler 27%
(D)*Menendez/Andrews/Palone vs. (R)Kean (NJ)
SUSA Corzine 46% appr. 40% dis. (Bush 33% appr.)
Latest poll: Zogby - Kean 44% Andrews 36%
(D)Ben Nelson vs. (R)Stenberg/Ricketts (Nebraska)
SUSA Nelson 63% appr. 27% dis. (Bush 55% appr.)
_
Remaining (safe) Races:
(D)Kohl vs. (R)*Lorge (Wisconsin)
SUSA Kohl 55% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 41% appr.)
(D)Open vs. (R)Lugar (Indiana)
SUSA Luger 59% appr. 27% dis. (Bush 47% appr.)
(D)Conrad vs. (R)open (North Dakota)
SUSA Conrad 69% appr. 25% dis. (Bush 51% appr.)
(D)Byrd vs. (R)open (West Virginia)
SUSA Byrd 65% appr. 29% dis. (Bush 44% appr.)
(D)open vs. (R)Snowe (Maine)
SUSA Snowe 77% appr. 18% dis. (Bush 33% appr.)
(D)Bingaman vs. (R)Sanchez (New Mexico)
SUSA Bingaman 59% appr. 26% dis. (Bush 40% appr.)
(D)Akaka vs. (R)Aiona (Hawaii)
SUSA Akaka 56% appr. 32% dis. (Bush 41% appr.)
(D)Kennedy vs. (R)open (Mass.)
SUSA Kennedy 61% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 33% appr.)
(D)Lieberman vs. (R)open (Connecticut)
SUSA Lieberman 68% appr. 24% dis. (Bush 36% appr.)
(D)Clinton vs. (R)Cox/Pirro (New York)
SUSA Clinton 61% appr. 35% dis. (Bush 32% appr.)
(D)Carper vs. (R)Bonini (Delaware)
SUSA Carper 66% appr. 22% dis. (Bush 34% appr.)
(D)Kirk vs. (R)Hutchinson (Texas)
SUSA Hutchinson 57% appr.29% dis. (Bush 52% appr.)
(D)Fleming vs. (R)Lott (Mississippi)
SUSA Lott 60% appr. 32% dis. (Bush 55% appr.)
(D)Ashdown vs. (R)Hatch (Utah)
SUSA Hatch 55% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 63% appr.)
(D)Feinstein vs. (R)open (California)
SUSA Feinstein 54% appr. 34% dis. (Bush 34% appr.)
(D)open vs. (R)Thomas (Wyoming)
SUSA Thomas 60% appr. 25% dis. (Bush 55% appr.)
(I)Sanders vs. (R)Parke (Vermont)
SUSA (I)Jeffords 64% appr. 25% dis. (Bush 29% app)
Here are the races - I would put the over/under at Dems + 3.
What do you folks think?
(*not announced yet)
SUSA Senate
SUSA Bush