I listed the Senate races and re-ordered them based on the current poll data. The December state by state SUSA Bush ratings give us an insight into how much Bush will help or hurt a candidate.
More below the fold:
All potentially competative races now
*Incumbent Repug - 8 to defend:*
(D)Casey vs. (R)Santorum (Pennsylvania)
SUSA Santorum 47% appr. 43% dis. (Bush 35% appr.)
Latest poll: Rass. - Casey 54% Santorum 34%
(D)Brown/Hackett vs. (R)Dewine/McEwen (Ohio)
SUSA Dewine 47% appr. 42% dis. (Bush 37% appr.)
Latest poll: Col. Dis. - Brown 35% Dewine 31%
(D)McCaskill vs. (R)Talent (Missouri)
SUSA Talent 51% appr. 39% dis. (Bush 44% appr.)
Latest poll: Rass - McCaskill 47% Talent 45%
(D)Whitehouse/Brown vs. (R)Chefee/Laffey (RI)
SUSA Chefee 54% appr. 38% dis. (Bush 25% appr.)
Latest poll: Brown U - Cheffee 41% Whitehouse 36%
(D)Tester/Morrison vs. (R)Burns (Montana)
SUSA Burns 45% appr. 46% dis. (Bush 50% appr.)
Latest Poll: Rassmu. Burns 51% Tester 38%
(D)Pederson vs. (R)Kyl (Arizona)
SUSA Kyle 46% appr. 39% dis. (Bush 48% appr.)
Latest poll: Zogby - Kyl 51% Petterson 42%
(D)Ford vs. (R)Corker/Bryant/Hilleary (Tenn.)
SUSA Frist 49% appr. 42% dis. (Bush 44% appr.)
Latest poll: Zogby - Bryant 51% Ford 40%
(D)Carter vs. (R)Ensign (Nevada)
Ensign 49% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 40% appr.)
Latest poll: Mason Dixon - Ensign 59% Carter 25%
*Incumbent Dem - 7 to defend:*
(D)Wetterling/Klobucher/Ciresi vs.(R)Kennedy (Minn.)
SUSA Dayton 45% appr. 43% dis. (Bush 41% appr.)
Latest poll: Rass. - Klobucher 48% Kennedy 41%
(D)Cardin/Mfume vs. (R)Steele (Maryland)
SUSA Sarbanes 51% appr. 34% dis. (Bush 34% appr.)
Latest poll: Gonzales - Cardin 47% Steele 38%
(D)Menendez/Andrews/Palone vs. (R)Kean (NJ)
SUSA Corzine 50% appr. 40% dis. (Bush 36% appr.)
Latest poll: Zogby - Kean 44% Andrews 36%
(D)Cantwell vs. (R)McGavick (Washington)
SUSA Cantwell 55% appr. 34% dis. (Bush 36% appr.)
Latest poll: Rass. - Cantwell 52% McGavick 37%
(D)Bill Nelson vs. (R)Harris (Florida)
SUSA Nelson 48% appr. 28% dis. (Bush 46% appr.)
Latest Poll: Stra. Vis. Nelson 48% Harris 36%
(D)Stabenow vs. (R)Butler/Zandstra/ (Michigan)
SUSA Stabenow 48% appr. 38% dis. (Bush 35% appr.)
Latest poll: Stra. Vis.-Stabenow 48% Butler 27%
(D)Ben Nelson vs. (R)Stenberg/Ricketts (Nebraska)
SUSA Nelson 66% appr. 24% dis. (Bush 53% appr.)
*Remaining (safe) Races:*
(D)Kohl vs. (R)*Lorge (Wisconsin)
SUSA Kohl 57% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 40% appr.)
(D)Open vs. (R)Lugar (Indiana)
SUSA Luger 62% appr. 27% dis. (Bush 42% appr.)
(D)Conrad vs. (R)open (North Dakota)
SUSA Conrad 70% appr. 26% dis. (Bush 46% appr.)
(D)Byrd vs. (R)open (West Virginia)
SUSA Byrd 65% appr. 30% dis. (Bush 39% appr.)
(D)open vs. (R)Snowe (Maine)
SUSA Snowe 75% appr. 22% dis. (Bush 34% appr.)
(D)Bingaman vs. (R)Sanchez (New Mexico)
SUSA Bingaman 59% appr. 32% dis. (Bush 43% appr.)
(D)Akaka vs. (R)Aiona (Hawaii)
SUSA Akaka 64% appr. 26% dis. (Bush 41% appr.)
(D)Kennedy vs. (R)open (Mass.)
SUSA Kennedy 60% appr. 35% dis. (Bush 28% appr.)
(D)Lieberman vs. (R)open (Connecticut)
SUSA Lieberman 63% appr. 31% dis. (Bush 34% appr.)
(D)Clinton vs. (R)Pirro (New York)
SUSA Clinton 63% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 28% appr.)
(D)Carper vs. (R)Bonini (Delaware)
SUSA Carper 63% appr. 26% dis. (Bush 34% appr.)
(D)*Kirk/Radnofsky vs. (R)Hutchinson (Texas)
SUSA Hutchinson 60% appr. 30% dis. (Bush 46% appr.)
(D)Ashdown vs. (R)Hatch (Utah)
SUSA Hatch 59% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 63% appr.)
(D)Feinstein vs. (R)open (California)
SUSA Feinstein 52% appr. 37% dis. (Bush 35% appr.)
(D)open vs. (R)Thomas (Wyoming)
SUSA Thomas 60% appr. 30% dis. (Bush 55% appr.)
(D)*Taylor/*Hood vs. (R)*Lott/*Pickering (Mississippi)
SUSA Lott 66% appr. 27% dis. (Bush 48% appr.)
(D)*Webb/*Miller vs. (R)Allen (Virginia)
SUSA Allen 59% appr. 28% dis. (Bush 46% appr.)
(I)Sanders vs. (R)*Parke (Vermont)
SUSA (I)Jeffords 61% appr. 31% dis. (Bush 30% app)
Here are the races - I would put the over/under at Dems + 3.
What do you folks think?
(*not announced yet)
SUSA Senate
SUSA Bush