I listed the Senate races and ordered them based on the current poll data. The December state by state SUSA Bush ratings give us an insight into how much Bush will help or hurt a candidate.
Looking at the races what is important to note is that of the 8 repug seats being challenged in 6 of those races current data puts either the Dem ahead or within at least 9% points. However, of the 7 Dem seats being challenged only 3 races are within at least 9%. Furthermore, of the 9 most close races Bush has a negative approval rating in each state.
More below the fold:
All potentially competative races now
Incumbent Repug - 8 to defend:
(D)Casey vs. (R)Santorum (Pennsylvania)
SUSA Santorum 47% appr. 43% dis. (Bush 35% appr.)
Latest poll: Quinnipiac - Casey 53% Santorum 38%
(D)McCaskill vs. (R)Talent (Missouri)
SUSA Talent 51% appr. 39% dis. (Bush 44% appr.)
Latest poll: Research2000 - McCaskill 47% Talent 44%
(D)Tester/Morrison vs. (R)Burns (Montana)
SUSA Burns 45% appr. 46% dis. (Bush 50% appr.)
Latest Poll: Mason Dixon - Tester 45% Burns 45%
(D)Brown/Hackett vs. (R)Dewine (Ohio)
SUSA Dewine 47% appr. 42% dis. (Bush 37% appr.)
Latest poll: Rassm. - Dewine 45% Brown 40%
(D)Whitehouse/Brown vs. (R)Chefee/Laffey (RI)
SUSA Chefee 54% appr. 38% dis. (Bush 25% appr.)
Latest poll: Brown U - Chefee 38% Whitehouse 25%
(D)Ford vs. (R)Bryant/Hilleary/Corker (Tenn.)
SUSA Frist 49% appr. 42% dis. (Bush 44% appr.)
Latest poll: Rassm. - Bryant 41% Ford 38%
(D)Pederson vs. (R)Kyl (Arizona)
SUSA Kyle 46% appr. 39% dis. (Bush 48% appr.)
Latest poll: Rock. Mount. - Kyl 55% Pederson 26%
(D)Carter/*Goodman vs. (R)Ensign (Nevada)
Ensign 49% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 40% appr.)
Latest poll: Mason Dixon - Ensign 59% Carter 25%
Incumbent Dem - 7 to defend:
(D)Cardin vs. (R)Steele (Maryland)
SUSA Sarbanes 51% appr. 34% dis. (Bush 34% appr.)
Latest poll: Rassm. - Steele 45% Cardin 40%
(D)Klobucher vs.(R)Kennedy (Minn.)
SUSA Dayton 45% appr. 43% dis. (Bush 41% appr.)
Latest poll: Rassm. - Klobucher 48% Kennedy 41%
(D)Menendez vs. (R)Kean (NJ)
SUSA Corzine 50% appr. 40% dis. (Bush 36% appr.)
Latest poll: Fairleigh - Kean 36% Menendez 25%
(D)Cantwell vs. (R)McGavick (Washington)
SUSA Cantwell 55% appr. 34% dis. (Bush 36% appr.)
Latest poll: Rassm. - Cantwell 51% McGavick 36%
(D)Stabenow vs. (R)Bouchard/Butler (Michigan)
SUSA Stabenow 48% appr. 38% dis. (Bush 35% appr.)
Latest poll: Rassm. - Stabenow 54% Butler 34%
(D)Bill Nelson vs. (R)Harris (Florida)
SUSA Nelson 48% appr. 28% dis. (Bush 46% appr.)
Latest Poll: Rassm. - Nelson 54% Harris 31%
(D)Ben Nelson vs. (R)Stenberg/Ricketts (Nebraska)
SUSA Nelson 66% appr. 24% dis. (Bush 53% appr.)
Latest Poll: Rassm. - Nelson 52% Ricketts 29%
Remaining (safe) Races:
(D)Kohl vs. (R)Lorge (Wisconsin)
SUSA Kohl 57% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 40% appr.)
(D)open vs. (R)Lugar (Indiana)
SUSA Luger 62% appr. 27% dis. (Bush 42% appr.)
(D)Conrad vs. (R)open (North Dakota)
SUSA Conrad 70% appr. 26% dis. (Bush 46% appr.)
(D)Byrd vs. (R)*Raese (West Virginia)
SUSA Byrd 65% appr. 30% dis. (Bush 39% appr.)
(D)Brennan vs. (R)Snowe (Maine)
SUSA Snowe 75% appr. 22% dis. (Bush 34% appr.)
(D)Bingaman vs. (R)Sanchez (New Mexico)
SUSA Bingaman 59% appr. 32% dis. (Bush 43% appr.)
(D)Akaka/Case vs. (R)Aiona (Hawaii)
SUSA Akaka 64% appr. 26% dis. (Bush 41% appr.)
(D)Kennedy vs. (R)Scott (Mass.)
SUSA Kennedy 60% appr. 35% dis. (Bush 28% appr.)
(D)Lieberman/Lamont vs. (I)*Weicker (Connecticut)
SUSA Lieberman 63% appr. 31% dis. (Bush 34% appr.)
(D)Clinton vs. (R)Spencer (New York)
SUSA Clinton 63% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 28% appr.)
(D)Carper vs. (R)Bonini (Delaware)
SUSA Carper 63% appr. 26% dis. (Bush 34% appr.)
(D)Radnofsky vs. (R)Hutchinson (Texas)
SUSA Hutchinson 60% appr. 30% dis. (Bush 46% appr.)
(D)Ashdown vs. (R)Hatch (Utah)
SUSA Hatch 59% appr. 33% dis. (Bush 63% appr.)
(D)Feinstein vs. (R)open (California)
SUSA Feinstein 52% appr. 37% dis. (Bush 35% appr.)
(D)Groutage vs. (R)Thomas (Wyoming)
SUSA Thomas 60% appr. 30% dis. (Bush 55% appr.)
(D)open vs. (R)Lott (Mississippi)
SUSA Lott 66% appr. 27% dis. (Bush 48% appr.)
(D)*Webb/*Miller vs. (R)Allen (Virginia)
SUSA Allen 59% appr. 28% dis. (Bush 46% appr.)
(I)Sanders vs. (R)Tarrant/Parke (Vermont)
SUSA (I)Jeffords 61% appr. 31% dis. (Bush 30% app)
Here are the races - I would put the over/under at Dems + 3.5.
What do you folks think?
(*not announced yet)
SUSA Senate
SUSA Bush